The Terrible Blog

Thursday, January 19, 2012

The Terrible Picks: Conference Championship Lines

The ultimate rooting interest for Steelers fans is pretty clear cut, isn't it? You have deep-seeded and legitimate hate for the remaining AFC teams and would probably prefer not to share the Sixburgh label with Sixcisco. (Sorry, but they are almost equally as dumb.) Go G-men.....

We try to bet with our head, not our hearts -- but who are we kidding?

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)

The prevailing text and tweet I got over the weekend was whether I would rather the Ravens or Patriots go to the Super Bowl. My stock reply was, "I'm not sure. Which nut would you rather kick me in?"

What's your play here? Wisdom tells us that the Pats have the offensive and coaching advantage while that damn Ravens defense has a knack for always making a game of it. Eight points is a hefty gift for a team like Baltimore, who matches up well and whose offense could get a boost from playing a mediocre defense. Right Ed Reed?

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

We'll know by Sunday night whether this has the potential of being A Very Harbaugh Superbowl. Despite the fact that I root for Tom Crean, their brother-in-law, I have no desire to see that happen.

This game has a weird momentum to it. The Giants are considered the hot, streaking destiny team and deserve props for a dominating win against the Packers. However, San Fran knocked off the Saints, who were clearly everyone's darling up until last week. Choose wisely. Right Joe Lieberman?

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The Terrible Picks Standings: We Don't Believe in the 49ers

In honor of our new Terrible Picks leader, I'm happy to publish his last Facebook status: "Good thing Aaron Rodgers has that discount double-check." Well played, Shakoske.

Steve is our leader with 7 of 8 points followed closely by Corey with 6 and a host of others at 5.

Lines for the championship games will be up tomorrow. Super Bowl week will include the spread and over/unders.

Coach, Ben, Bruce and Pasta: Our first TMZ-like report

SI.com -- NOT taken tonight

I'm not one to spread rumors, but if you want to connect a bunch of reports, rumors, random sightings and hearsay, I'm game enough to play a game of connect-the-dots.

Jerry Dulac of the Post Gazette reported earlier today that Bruce Arians might either retire or not have his contract renewed. The Steelers offensive coordinator since '07 has considered retirement in the past for health reasons and team president Art Rooney did indicate that some staff members were considering retirement.

The PG report isn't solid confirmation. Although, interestingly, a Terrible Blog field reporter has indicated that Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger were eating in a private room at La Tavola's on Mt. Washington this evening. Here's the menu if you'd like to speculate on what they were eating.

My bet is that Ben is a linguini carbonara guy. According to an old SI article, Tomlin's favorite dish is "Pasta Alla Ben" a fusilli and sausage dish named after his dinner mate.

Our TMZ-like report from the field:

Couldn't hear their conversation but they laughed occasionally. Didn't seem too serious. Tomlin looked suave in a sweater and a newsboy-style cap. They were in a private room but I could see them through a screen.

Obviously, this could just be a casual season exit-meeting or a supportive discussion after Tomlin's father passed away this week. I wouldn't be surprised if Coach and Ben have a meal together after each season, but something as big as Tomlin's first offensive coordinator change could warrant more than a typical office discussion.

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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Your Terrible Picks: Divisional Playoff Edition

Saints -3 1/2 at 49ers

The seemingly irresistible force versus the immovable 49ers front. Do you think the Saints can do it it on grass and in the wind?

Broncos at Patriots -13 1/2

Oh, just make your damn pick. If you want Tebow and nearly two touchdowns, take it.

Texans at Ravens -9

Well, Houston's got its first playoff win. But they beat the Bengals. Can you say "grain of salt"?

Giants at Packers - 7 1/2

I figured the Packers would be giving more at home in their playoff opener. I guess Aaron Rodgers is no Matt Flynn.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Steelers Aftermath: The Season, The Play, The Truth and This Week

The story of the 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers will be long remembered for a shocking, 9,000 Tweet/second inducing 80-yard pass from a below average quarterback to a crappy wide receiver that started just five games this year and didn't even know his touchdown ended the game.

It was a number of poor decisions on one play that ended the season for a team that seemed unnecessarily desperate down the stretch.

With players dropping like flies, others hobbled and more than a few looking old, I got the sense when the Steelers lost to the Ravens at home, Tomlin got scared. He made his mind up that the only path to the Super Bowl was a No. 1-seed and the week of rest and recuperation that came with it.

So rather than insisting on players like Woodley, Pouncey and, especially Roethlisberger actually taking the time they needed to recover, he rolled the dice that his limping stars could get the 13 wins that would get them home field advantage.

The result was exactly what we saw in Denver. A healthy squad would have been victorious, but this one was decimated right down the middle like a 7-10 split. (QB, RB, C, DL, LB, S)

The Play

Let me say this upfront: I've only watched this play three times. Once live with my mouth hanging predictably open. The broadcast replay again while sitting on the floor in a fetal-like position and again when I DVRed it back before turning the TV off for the evening.

Since then, I have nearly managed to shut out all media -- including listening to the only CD in my car (Tribe - Midnight Marauders) at least three times.

I have heard enough people blame Ryan Mundy and Ike Taylor to wonder if the secondary blame is being distributed fairly. Denver made a gorgeous playcall that should have deservedly went for a 15 to 25 yard gain. By all accounts, 95% of the time the Broncos had brought a receiver in motion, they ran the ball.

However, on that play, the Steelers were in zero coverage -- which, if I understand it right, means that there was no safety help on either side of the field. Mundy was on the side of the field that Thomas began his route on and Polamalu was on the opposite.

Unless the Steelers actually thought that Tebow was worse that a Pop Warner quarterback, that wasn't planned. And if I'm betting my mortgage on which guy was doing some season-killing freelancing, I'm taking the one with long, lustrous, dandruff-free hair.

The Truth

What will forever be viewed as a flop wasn't actually a bad effort from the Steelers.

No one outside of that locker room will ever know how insane it was to be a 9-point favorite on the road with an immobile QB, starting running back out, decimated line without its Pro Bowl center, a defensive line down to THREE bodies, a Pro Bowl linebacker with a painful hamstring and starting safety on the sideline watching.

If it weren't for the fact that he seemingly does it every week, Roethlisberger's 289 yards and two scoring drives to tie the game in regulation would be considered heroic.

Who the Hell to Root For?

I'm handling things well, but the part that disgusts me most is that the Steelers basically put the Ravens or Patriots into the Super Bowl.

I don't like the Patriots. Duh. But do I root for the Broncos Saturday night? A ridiculous Denver upset would just mean the Ravens would host an AFC Title game. That would be far worse that the Pats going to the Super Bowl?

I'm aware that it really doesn't matter who I root for, but here's how I feel about the rest of the field, by order of hatred:

Baltimore: I get nearly as much satisfaction from Ravens losses as Steelers wins.
Patriots: A full notch below the Ravens.
49ers: 5 Titles -- don't want another 6th. They have a Harbaugh too.
Packers: 4 -- Too close for comfort
Texans: Eh.
Giants: For no apparent reason, I like them.
Broncos: Somehow, it still tickles me how mad Tebow makes people.
Saints: I just love watching this team, like Brees and Porter -- and if they can knock off the 49ers, Packers and Ravens/Pats in the dome -- godspeed....

Sunday, January 8, 2012

The Terrible Picks: Wild Card Week Results

A big chunk of the Terrible Audience has no desire to think about football, so think, instead, about how much money you could have won -- or lost -- but didn't.

Here are the results, with Nancy, Lauren and Steve leading the way.

Go LSU. I despise Nick Saban.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

The Picks Are In - Half of Them Suck

Wildcard Weekend T-Shirt Time

As you'll see below, my expert picks are going to make rich today. But, besides that, the thing I'm rooting for most today is an overtime game.

The rule that was adopted two offseasons ago is great. Basically, both teams get a chance to possess the ball in overtime, unless the receiving team scores a touchdown. I'd love to see the Saints decide whether to go for it on 4th and 1 or to kick a short field goal if they know the Lions could score a touchdown in win. *Fingers crossed*

On to the game...

Bengals at Texans (-3) Today 4:30 p.m.

If I'm Andy Dalton, I'm pissed. And not just because people keep photoshopping stripes on my blindlingly red hair. For some reason, the talk all week has been how the Bengals are underdogs with a rookie quarterback. Meanwhile, TJ Yates is a rookie with a separated shoulder, a hobbled star receiver and a name that looks really awkward on the back of a jersey. Both teams have improved defenses, but when push comes to shove, it's hard to imagine anyone but the Bengals getting shoved. The difference here is running game and Arian Foster wins the war today.

My Pick: Take the Texans and the points

The Terrible Lean: No consensus at all as 50% too the Bengals and 50% took the Texans.

Lions at Saints (-11) Today 8 p.m.

The Saints are everyone's hot Super pick all of the sudden. I can understand being blinded by a beautiful offense, but I just don't see it happening. To get there, they would have outscore the Lions, win a touch physical matchup on the road in San Francisco and then go into a frigid Lambeau Field.

I think they're going to win this game tonight. Their clear advantage over the Lions is that they can run the ball. While the don't have a 1,000 yd. rusher, they have the 3rd-best running game in the league. In fact, they average almost 5 yds/carry. That said, I'm taking the Lions and a huge 11 points. The Lions offense has been nearly as good as the Saints and there's no reason to believe they won't at least keep it close and, at worst, grab a back-door cover that's swung wide open at 11.

My Pick: Detroit covers it. Maybe I even get my OT.

The Terrible Lean: New Orleans 53%, Detroit 47%

Falcons at Giants (-3) Tomorrow 1 p.m.

As Dame and I talked about in our technically difficult podcast, it seems to me that the moment the Packers blew the Falcons out of the water last year in the Divisional Round, no one has talked about them since. They have a lot of offensive weapons, a good quarterback and a solid defense without stars. Yet the bore us.

I think boring wins tomorrow. What have the Giants done for us lately? They beat the Cowboys -- and everyone is appreciate of the Jerry Jones Schadenfreude Gift that came with it. But they really haven't been that good outside of the fires that Eli Manning has pulled them out of. The Falcons have a quick tempo offense that will throw off the Giants and I don't think they recover from an early deficit this time.

My Pick: I was hoping to get 3 1/2, but I'll take the 2Legits and the 3.

The Terrible Lean: Giants 60%, Falcons 40%

Steelers (-8) at Broncos Tomorrow 4 p.m.

Here's a handful of predictions that probably will be wrong:

Brady Quinn plays quarterback for a good chunk of this game.
Roethlisberger is in the shotgun on nearly every play.
The Steelers, who averaging LESS than a turnover a game, get 3

I almost don't even to watch this game. Here's an observation about the picks. People I know who are die-hard Steelers fans and have definitely watched the Cleveland game and the 49ers game are taking the Broncos. Those that are probably just thinking, "Steelers at Broncos with Tebow....blowout" haven't seen this team recently. Colts by 3, Jags by 4, Chiefs by 4, Browns by 4.

Those are TERRIBLE teams. So why should I be confident that a team without their probowl center, a QB that can't move and starting safety and running back at home should definitely win? I don't.

And I'm definitely not giving 8 .

My Pick: Broncos, who better need those 8 points to cover.

The Terrible Lean: Steelers 67%, Broncos 53%

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Here We Go Again: The Terrible Challenge 2012

As far as I can tell, we've done this thing twice and each year the Steelers ended up in the Super Bowl. That's good enough for me.

The Terrible Picks enter their 3rd year and we're back and better than ever. Well, pretty much the same, actually.

The groundrules: Each week throughout the postseason, I will post the spreads before Friday here on TheTerribleBlog.com. Simply pick your winner against the spread in the comments section and I'll keep a nifty spreadsheet with the results. The person or persons with the most points in the winner. There are 12 possible points, with 4 Wildcard Games, 4 Divisional Games, 2 Conference Title Games and 2 Superbowl Points (We also pick the over/under.)

Picks would be preferred in the comments section, but they will be accepted on Facebook or by text or Twitter direct message @theterribleblog. However, I will roll my eyes at you for being too lazy to give me one lousy hit on my website.

The prize: Our unknowing sponsor -- Amato's Pizza -- has been selected again. I will arrange for a large pizza with 2 toppings to be paid for under your name -- or I will accompany you and help you eat it.

Also, all participants are asked to change their Facebook status to "____INSERT NAME ____, The Terrible Picks Champion, is far better at predicting the results of American Football Playoff Games than I" for a minimum of an hour.

History in Brief:

Barry took the title last year with a Vegas-busting 10 out of 12 picks correct and looks to defend things. Mike S. has disappeared from Facebook, but if I can locate him, he'll try to regain the title he earned in the inaugural season.

OK, Jerk, Just Give Me the Spreads

Bengals at Texans (-3) Sat. 4:30 p.m.

Lions at Saints (-11) Sat. 8 p.m.

Falcons at Giants (-3) Sun. 1 p.m.

Steelers (-8) at Broncos Sun. 4 p.m.

Just go to the bottom and click "comments" and choose name/url and type in the four nicknames you think will cover the spread. Deadline is 4:30 p.m. Saturday. Kickoff!

Best of luck....

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Pessimism Tuesday: What Exactly Are You So Confident About?

Source: New York Times

The focus of Steelers conversation this week seems to be whether we'd prefer to play Baltimore or New England this week. My current internal dialogue is asking no such questions.

Have you missed the last month of Steelers football?

Yes, Denver is a horrendous playoff team. They have an anemic offense, a quarterback that had his best games in the middle of the season and defense that is hobbled in some key spots.

Unfortunately, those last three descriptors describe Pittsburgh too.

Without question, Roethlisberger has been courageous over the past few weeks, but he hasn't been good. In fact, that toughness has definitely cost him some degree of his health. Playing in San Francisco and Cleveland was a calculated risk that has to be chalked up as a failure.

Remember, he suffered that high-ankle sprain on a Thursday Night against the Browns. That was December 8th. If trainers and coaches has kept him out, that would have been a full month's rest before their up-coming Wild Card game on Sunday, January 8th.

They would have had the 5-seed and a healthy quarterback. Now we have a gimpy one and..... the 5-seed.

Tebow has been a largely ineffective quarterback, but we've had one of our own lately. Against San Fransisco and at Cleveland, he had a 52.3 and 73.0 passer rating with no TDs and 3 INTs. Much of his inconsistency was injury-related -- a lot of unbalanced throws and awkward, uncharacteristic throws from the pocket due to his lack of mobility.

One one crucial 3rd and short against Cleveland, he rolled to his right and had a clear path to run for a first down. He also could have stopped and forced the linebacker to cover the running back or pursue him. Instead, he slowed a bit and flung a pass incomplete.

I'm not even criticizing his play. I respect the effort. But while Denver has put up a puny 40 points in the last 3 games, the Steelers have only scored 43. And, now, they try to run a spread offense without a spread running back and field a defense without Ryan Clark.

Sure, we've walked down this road-warrior path before. But that '05 team already showed a knack for winning on the road, going 6-2 away from Heinz Field.

The 2011 model hasn't been impressive at all on the road. They either lost to solid playoff teams (BAL, HOU, SF) or squeaked by very bad ones (IND, KC, CLE). They beat the Back-In Bengals by a touchdown and Arizona by 11.

Vegas has the Steelers as 10-point favorites. Fans in Pittsburgh hope that a win Sunday will start the ball rolling downhill to Indy.

I guess I just don't feel the momentum yet.

Coming Soon: The Cranium Column, Playoff Pick 'Em, My First Tweeteraction With a Steeler

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